I'm at the Web 2.0 summit in SF.
In addition to seeing some old friends, I've met a ton of new companies and new people trying to change the world. I met too many people yesterday with new ideas that my head is spinning. The excitement is infectious.
With all of the entrepreneurs running around, VCs running around, and panel after panel, it's not surprising that many folks are wondering if we are in another bubble and if Crash 2.0 is coming soon. My friend Scott Rafer believes we are months away from the next bust. Josh on the other hand points out why the crash-predictors have been actually been with us for a long time.
During one of the panels I actually sat in on, the founder of Topix had a slide about broadband penetration in the US since 2000. Its hard to remember but when the stock market tanked the last time around, broadband penetration in the US market was just under 10%. In retrospect it's hard to believe that we were able to build so many businesses going after so few users. Yes, I know people will remind me that sites in those days were optimized for dialup but c'mon, we know that was just a bandaid. The user experience for dialup is just lame. (think about mobile internet for a moment).
I can't predict when the next crash will come. As an investor, I wish I could.
But I'm encouraged by some entrepreneurs and VCs trying to learn from the past. And I'm encouraged that there are more of us online & connected than ever.
And besides, bulls are more fun than bears :)